When will interest rates go down again and how do they affect mortgages?

Kevin Peachey

Cost of living correspondent

BBC

The Bank of England has cut interest rates from 4.5% to 4.25% at its latest meeting in May – the second reduction in 2025.

Analysts expect the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee to announce further cuts later in the year.

Interest rates affect mortgage, credit card and savings rates for millions of people.

What are interest rates and why do they change?

An interest rate tells you how much it costs to borrow money, or the reward for saving it.

The Bank of England’s base rate is what it charges other banks and building societies to borrow money.

That influences what they charge their own customers for loans such as mortgages as well as the interest rate they pay on savings.

The Bank moves rates up and down in order to keep UK inflation – which is the increase in the price of something over time – at 2%.

When inflation is above that target, the Bank can decide to put rates up. This encourages people to spend less, reducing demand for goods and services and limiting price rises.

Once inflation is at or near the target, the Bank may hold rates, or cut them to stimulate spending and economic growth.

Will rates fall further?

It is difficult to predict exactly what will happen to interest rates, even in the medium-term.

The main inflation measure, CPI, was 2.6% in the 12 months to March 2025, down slightly from the previous month.

Although that is far below the peak of 11.1% reached in October 2022, inflation remains above the 2% target.

As well as inflation, the Bank has to consider how the UK economy is doing more generally.

It also pays close attention to the performance of the global economy, which has been thrown into chaos by the widespread tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey previously said he would take a gradual and careful approach to cutting rates.

But the uncertainty caused by US tariffs may mean UK interest rates fall further than predicted as the Bank seeks to help boost the economy. Some analysts believe rates could fall to 3.5%.

How do interest rates affect mortgages, loans and savings rates?

Mortgages

Just under a third of households have a mortgage, according to the government’s English Housing Survey.

About 600,000 homeowners have a mortgage that “tracks” the Bank of England’s rate, so the latest base rate change has an immediate impact on their monthly repayments. Typically, their monthly repayments will now be £29 cheaper.

But the vast majority of mortgage customers have fixed-rate deals. While their monthly payments aren’t immediately affected by a rate change, future deals are.

Mortgage rates are still much higher than they have been for much of the past decade.

As of 8 May, the average two-year fixed mortgage rate was 5.14%, according to financial information company Moneyfacts, and a five-year deal was 5.08%. The average two-year tracker was 5.15%.

This means many homebuyers and those remortgaging are having to pay a lot more than if they had borrowed the same amount a few years ago.

About 800,000 fixed-rate mortgages with an interest rate of 3% or below are expected to expire every year, on average, until the end of 2027. Their borrowing costs are expected to rise sharply.

Lenders have been reducing rates on new fixed deals in expectation that UK interest rates will fall further.

You can see how your mortgage may be affected by future interest rate changes by using our calculator:

Credit cards and loans

Bank of England interest rates also influence the amount charged on credit cards, bank loans and car loans.

Lenders can decide to reduce their own interest rates if Bank cuts make borrowing costs cheaper.

However, this tends to happen very slowly.

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Savings

The Bank base rate also affects how much savers earn on their money.

A falling base rate is likely to mean a reduction in the returns offered to savers by banks and building societies.

The current average rate for an easy access account is 3% a year.

Any cut could particularly affect those who rely on the interest from their savings to top up their income.

What is happening to interest rates in other countries?

In recent years, the UK has had one of the highest interest rates in the G7 – the group representing the world’s seven largest so-called “advanced” economies.

In June 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) started to cut its main interest rate for the eurozone from an all-time high of 4%. At its last meeting in June 2025 the ECB cut rates by 0.25% to 2%.

In the US, the central bank – the Federal Reserve – cut rates three times in the latter part of 2024.

However the Fed has since held interest rates – most recently on 7 May – citing the uncertainty generated by US tariffs. This means the bank’s key lending rate’s target range remains at 4.25% to 4.5%.

The Fed has repeatedly come under attack from President Trump, who wants to see further cuts.

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If not, enter the total you are looking to borrow.u003c/divu003en u003c/divu003en u003c/divu003en n u003cdiv class=”input__container “u003en u003cinput id=”form_input_1″n name=”form_input_1″ n type=”number”n value=”165000″n min=”0″ n max=”10000000″n data-default=”165000″n step=”any”n required=”required”n u003en n u003cdiv class=”input__btn-container”u003en u003cbutton class=”input__btn-increment” data-direction=”increment” data-key=”form_input_1″ aria-label=”increase £”u003eu003c/buttonu003en u003cbutton class=”input__btn-decrement” data-direction=”decrement” data-key=”form_input_1″ aria-label=”decrease £”u003eu003c/buttonu003en u003c/divu003en u003cspan class=”input__number-format” aria-hidden=”true”u003e£u003c/spanu003en u003c/divu003en u003cdiv class=”label__container”u003en u003clabel class=”label__input ” for=”form_input_2″u003eHow long will you take to pay it back?u003c/labelu003en u003cbutton class=”label__info-btn” data-id=”info-button-2″ aria-label=”More info on repayment periods”u003eu003c/buttonu003en u003cdiv class=”info-box info-button-2″u003en u003cdiv class=”info-box__text info-button-2″u003eIf you have an existing mortgage enter the total number of years remaining. If not, enter the total number of years you are looking to borrow over.u003c/divu003en u003c/divu003en u003c/divu003en n u003cdiv class=”input__container “u003en u003cinput id=”form_input_2″n name=”form_input_2″ n type=”number”n value=”20″n min=”1″ n max=”50″n data-default=”20″n step=”any”n required=”required”n u003en n u003cdiv class=”input__btn-container”u003en u003cbutton class=”input__btn-increment” data-direction=”increment” data-key=”form_input_2″ aria-label=”increase years”u003eu003c/buttonu003en u003cbutton class=”input__btn-decrement” data-direction=”decrement” data-key=”form_input_2″ aria-label=”decrease years”u003eu003c/buttonu003en u003c/divu003en u003cspan class=”input__number-format” aria-hidden=”true”u003eyearsu003c/spanu003en u003c/divu003en u003cdiv class=”radio__container”u003en u003cfieldsetu003en u003cdiv class=”label__container”u003en u003clegend class=”label__input”u003eWhat is your current…u003c/legendu003en u003cbutton class=”label__info-btn” data-id=”info-button-3″ aria-label=”More info on interest rates”u003eu003c/buttonu003en u003cdiv class=”info-box info-button-3″u003en u003cdiv class=”info-box__text”u003eFor those with a mortgage enter the rate for your current fixed term. For those without a mortgage enter an interest rate from another source, such as a banku0026#x27;s mortgage rate calculator.u003c/divu003en u003c/divu003en u003c/divu003en u003cdiv class=”radio__group”u003en u003cdiv class=”input-container”u003en u003cinput class=”radio-input” type=”radio” id=”interest” name=”format-selector” value=”interest” checked=”true”u003en u003clabel for=”interest”u003einterest rateu003c/labelu003en u003c/divu003en u003cdiv class=”input-container”u003en u003cinput class=”radio-input” type=”radio” id=”monthly” name=”format-selector” value=”monthly”u003en u003clabel for=”monthly”u003emonthly paymentu003c/labelu003en u003c/divu003en u003c/divu003en u003c/fieldsetu003en n u003cdiv class=”label__container”u003en u003clabel class=”label__input off-screen” for=”form_radio_input_1″u003einterest rateu003c/labelu003en u003c/divu003en n u003cdiv class=”input__container input__container–radio”u003en u003cinput id=”form_radio_input_1″n name=”form_radio_input_1″ n type=”number”n value=”3.4″n min=”0.5″ n max=”10.5″n data-default=”3.4″n step=”any”n required=”required”n u003en n u003cdiv class=”input__btn-container”u003en u003cbutton class=”input__btn-increment” data-direction=”increment” data-key=”form_radio_input_1″ aria-label=”increase %”u003eu003c/buttonu003en u003cbutton class=”input__btn-decrement” data-direction=”decrement” data-key=”form_radio_input_1″ aria-label=”decrease %”u003eu003c/buttonu003en u003c/divu003en u003cspan class=”input__number-format” aria-hidden=”true”u003e%u003c/spanu003en u003c/divu003en u003c/divu003en u003cdiv class=”label__container”u003en u003clabel class=”label__input ” for=”form_input_3″u003eChoose an interest rate to compare with…u003c/labelu003en u003c/divu003en n u003cdiv class=”input__container “u003en u003cinput id=”form_input_3″n name=”form_input_3″ n type=”number”n value=”5.5″n min=”0.1″ n max=”100″n data-default=”5.5″n step=”any”n required=”required”n u003en n u003cdiv class=”input__btn-container”u003en u003cbutton class=”input__btn-increment” data-direction=”increment” data-key=”form_input_3″ aria-label=”increase %”u003eu003c/buttonu003en u003cbutton class=”input__btn-decrement” data-direction=”decrement” data-key=”form_input_3″ aria-label=”decrease %”u003eu003c/buttonu003en u003c/divu003en u003cspan class=”input__number-format” aria-hidden=”true”u003e%u003c/spanu003en u003c/divu003en u003cinput class=”submit-btn” type=”submit” value=”Calculate” /u003en u003c/formu003en u003cdiv class=”results__container–figures” aria-hidden=”true”u003en u003cdiv class=”width-restrict”u003en u003cp class=”results__para”u003eAt this rate, your payments could change by…u003c/pu003en u003cdiv class=”results__figures”u003en u003cp class=”results__figure results__figure–monthly-increase”u003eu003cspan class=”figure”u003eu003c/spanu003en monthly changeu003c/pu003en u003cp class=”results__figure–to”u003etou003c/pu003en u003cp class=”results__figure results__figure–monthly-total”u003eu003cspan class=”figure”u003eu003c/spanu003en monthly totalu003c/pu003en u003c/divu003en u003c/divu003en u003c/divu003en u003cp class=”results–off-screen off-screen”u003eu003c/pu003en u003cdiv class=”results__container–repayment-estimate”u003en u003cp class=”results__estimate width-restrict”u003eu003c/pu003en u003c/divu003en u003cdiv class=”results__container–error”u003en u003cp class=”results__error”u003eu003c/pu003en u003c/divu003en u003cdiv class=”disclaimer”u003en u003cp class=”disclaimer-para”u003eThis calculator does not constitute financial advice. It is based on a standard mortgage repayment formula dependent on the mortgage size and length and a fixed interest rate. It should be used as a guide only and does not represent the suitability, eligibility or availability of mortgage offers for users. 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#interest #rates #affect #mortgages