Senate GOP leaders face spending squeeze on Trump’s big bill: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

Happy Monday and welcome to our first edition of June! The Senate is back this week and will begin the process of taking up the “big, beautiful bill” the House passed. Sahil Kapur breaks down the challenges facing GOP leaders as they try to send the legislation to President Donald Trump’s desk by July 4. Plus, Scott Bland digs into the archives for a quote from the 2016 campaign trail from a Republican that provides a guide for Democrats today.

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— Adam Wollner

Senate GOP leaders face spending squeeze on Trump’s big bill

By Sahil Kapur

The House-passed legislation for President Donald Trump’s domestic agenda is moving to the Senate, where Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., is facing a squeeze from opposing party factions about how to modify it.

Spending and the debt: Some Republicans say they want steeper spending cuts to offset the debt increase as a result of the tax breaks and funding bumps for immigration enforcement and the military. That includes Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., and Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., both of whom have said they cannot support the bill in its current form as it adds an estimated $2.3 trillion to the debt.

“It’s wrong. It’s immoral. It has to stop,” Johnson said Sunday on Fox News. “My loyalty is to the American people, to my kids and grandkids. We cannot continue to mortgage their future.”

Medicaid: On the other hand, Thune must navigate worries and political considerations from senators about the existing spending cuts in the legislation — particularly on Medicaid, SNAP and clean energy funding.

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, voted for the Senate’s initial budget blueprint to begin work on the bill, but later objected to a revised version, citing concerns that it could impact her constituents who rely on Medicaid coverage.

Collins is up for re-election in 2026, along with Sens. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., and Joni Ernst, R-Iowa. All are likely to face attacks from Democrats about the stricter burdens for Americans to stay on the health care program.

And at least one solid Trump ally from a red state is warning against rolling back Medicaid. “I’ve got some concerns,” Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., told reporters recently. “I continue to maintain my position; we should not be cutting Medicaid benefits.”

Hawley notably told NBC News last month he’s fine with “coverage losses” resulting from the work requirements and anti-fraud measures. So he may ultimately get in line with the bill, as Trump and Republican leaders are portraying the Medicaid provisions as program integrity measures, instead of cuts to rescind coverage.

Regardless, Hawley’s vocal support for preserving Medicaid benefits creates a potential land mine for Republicans to maneuver around, making it harder to cut deeper than the House bill if they want more savings to appease spending hawks.

Clean energy: As part of the spending caution, Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, says there is a faction of GOP senators who opposes the “termination” of the clean energy tax credits passed by Democrats in 2022, which Republican leaders have put on the chopping block to finance their bill.

Getting technical: And there’s a procedural hurdle Thune must navigate: The so-called “Byrd bath.” Senate rules limit bills under the “reconciliation” process — which Republicans are using here to bypass Democrats in the Senate — to budgetary measures that are primarily about dollars and cents, not policy changes. Democrats are preparing to challenge a host of provisions in the package.

In the end, the three-vote margin for defection may give Thune the breathing room he needs to pass the bill. But any changes the Senate makes need to go back to the House for another vote in the paper-thin majority.

And Thune is on deadline, as the Treasury Department has said Congress needs to pass a debt ceiling increase — which is part of the broader package — no later than July in order to prevent a catastrophic default.

Up until now, the GOP’s deadlines have all been fuzzy. But this one is real.

Related read: Thune says Senate on track to pass GOP megabill by July 4, by Frank Thorp V

A key lesson Democrats can learn from 2016 candidate Marco Rubio

Analysis by Scott Bland

Democrats are in regroup mode after losing the 2024 election, acutely aware of the party’s low standing with the American public and thinking through everything from their policy platform to where and how they talk to voters — like the $20 million pitch reported by The New York Times for a research project titled “Speaking with American Men: A Strategic Plan.”

More power to them, if someone wants to fund it. And Democrats desperately want to do something to move forward right now.

They might want to consider some long-ago advice from one Marco Rubio about what really matters for a political party’s viability — and why it could take an excruciatingly long time to get there.

When Rubio — currently President Donald Trump’s secretary of state — was running for president in August 2015, he gave a prescient response to questions about then-candidate Donald Trump’s rhetoric about immigration. Asked by CNBC whether the way Trump and others were talking about immigrants would hurt the Republican Party in the 2016 general election, Rubio said, “This is not the Republican Party. These are individual candidates who are responsible for their own rhetoric and what they say,” adding, “The face of the Republican Party is going to be our nominee.”

Rubio hit a similar theme days later, speaking to Bloomberg News in New Hampshire: “Ultimately the Republican Party will reach out to all voters based on who our nominee is. And I don’t believe Donald Trump will be our nominee.”

Don’t be distracted by the admittedly big thing that Rubio got wrong. The broader point is that American political parties are shaped and defined by their candidates.

The biggest and best thing that the Democratic Party can do to change voter perceptions of itself is to nominate a national candidate that voters see more favorably. The party can’t just erase former President Joe Biden’s struggles and former Vice President Kamala Harris’ loss to Trump — especially among the slice of Democrats fed up with their own party right now, a big contributor to those record-low poll numbers. That’s just stuck to the Democratic brand right now.

Of course, Democrats aren’t going to nominate another presidential candidate for three years or so. Perhaps that’s why some are itching to get that contest started sooner rather than later. Even formally nominating the party’s next slate of congressional or Senate contenders is a year or so away.

It’s no wonder that research and investment efforts are getting a lot of attention — on the long road to fixing a party brand, that’s what’s available right now.

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Ben Kamisar.

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