India’s CPI Inflation In May 2025 Falls To 2.82%, Lowest Since February 2019

Last Updated:June 12, 2025, 17:32 IST

India’s retail inflation in May 2025 declines to a 6-year low of 2.82%; food inflation falls to 0.99%, attributed to lower prices of pulses, vegetables, fruits, and cereals.

CPI Inflation In May 2025: India’s retail inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), in May 2025 declined to 2.82%, which is the lowest YoY inflation after February 2019, according to the latest official data released on Thursday.

The CPI inflation had stood at 3.16% in the previous month of April 2025 and 4.75% in May 2024.

“Year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of May, 2025 over May, 2024 is 2.82% (Provisional). There is decline of 34 basis points in headline inflation of May, 2025 in comparison to April, 2025. It is the lowest year-on-year inflation after February 2019,” the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation said in a statement on June 12.

Food inflation was at 0.99 per cent in May, significantly down from 8.69 per cent in the year-ago month, according to data of the National Statistics Office (NSO).

“The significant decline in headline inflation and food inflation during the month of May 2025 is mainly attributed to a decline in inflation of pulses & products, vegetables, fruits, cereals & products, households goods & services, sugar & confectionary and egg and the favourable base effect,” NSO said in a statement.

The food inflation in May 2025 is the lowest since October 2021.

Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank, said, “The headline inflation came in broadly in line with our expectations. High frequency data shows that the vegetable and fruit prices have started surging, offseting the downward trend visible in cereals and pulses. While the overall inflation trajectory is expected to remain benign, the recent frontloaded policy actions and the guidance of limited room for incremental easing suggests prolonged pause for now, with further actions being highly data dependant.”

Last week, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revised its retail inflation projection for FY26 to 3.7%, down from its earlier estimate of 4%. This marks the lowest average retail inflation forecast by the central bank in recent years.

The downward revision came alongside a surprise 50 basis points repo rate cut, bringing the key policy rate down to 5.5%, and a 100-bps CRR reduction as the RBI signalled confidence in the easing of price pressures amid a supportive global and domestic backdrop.

However, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said, “While food inflation outlook remains soft, core inflation is expected to remain benign with easing of international commodity prices in line with the anticipated global growth slowdown. The inflation outlook for the year is being revised downwards from the earlier forecast of 4.0 per cent to 3.7 per cent.”

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