Ten games into their defense of the first championship in franchise history, the New York Liberty look poised to make a run at another ring.
Although New York’s undefeated start came to an end in Saturday’s 102-88 loss to the Indiana Fever — who got 32 points from Caitlin Clark in her return to the lineup — the Liberty still put together one of the best 10-game stretches in league history to start the season.
Despite the loss, New York boasts the second-best point differential (plus-15.7) for a WNBA team in its first 10 games, trailing only the 2016 Los Angeles Sparks (plus-16.5), who started 11-0 en route to the title. The addition of Natasha Cloud has helped fill the void left by Betnijah Laney-Hamilton’s offseason knee surgery, while Kennedy Burke stepping up and the return of Marine Johannes has strengthened the Liberty bench.
We take a closer look at some of the questions about the defending champion, including the possibility New York could be better than last year, whether there are any weaknesses for the Liberty and the chances of a WNBA Finals rematch against the Minnesota Lynx.
Better than ever?
At 8-2 on its way to a 12-2 start, New York hardly struggled at the outset in 2024. Yet last year’s Liberty team wasn’t as dominant as this season’s group has been so far. New York had just three wins by more than 13 points in that stretch. The Liberty matched that by Game 3 this season and have won half their games by at least 19 points, boosting their point differential.
To some degree, that’s probably a function of schedule. New York has played a combined seven games against the Chicago Sky, Connecticut Sun, Golden State Valkyries and Washington Mystics — four of the five teams with the lowest over/under win totals at ESPN BET entering the season. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) rates the Liberty’s schedule to date the WNBA’s easiest. Because New York can’t play itself, that won’t totally even out. The Liberty’s remaining schedule rates fourth easiest but will still test them more than they have been so far.
Historically, teams that have been as dominant as New York has been to start the season have translated that into hardware. Of the eight previous teams to outscore opponents by an average of at least 12 points over the season’s first 10 games, six won championships. One of the others (the 2016 Lynx) lost to the hotter-starting Sparks, leaving the 2012 Minnesota team that lost to Indiana in the WNBA Finals as the only team to outscore opponents by so much early and lose to a slower-starting team in the playoffs.
Of course, the 2024 Liberty set the bar at a championship. But there were already reasons to think coming into this season that New York could potentially improve on last season, when the team finished 32-8 and went the distance against the Lynx in the Finals.
In addition to returning the team’s top four players in postseason minutes, the Liberty were able to add Cloud and bring back Johannes. Cloud has provided the best of Laney-Hamilton’s perimeter defense and the playmaking New York got from departed Courtney Vandersloot, leading the team in both assists and steals. Johannes hasn’t yet got going as a shooter on a consistent basis but showed her potential with six 3-pointers off the bench in a 28-point win over the expansion Valkyries.
The expansion draft cost the Liberty sixth woman Kayla Thornton, who’s excelling in a starting role with Golden State. However, New York had prepared for that by bringing in Burke and acquiring the rights to Rebekah Gardner. The two defensive-minded wings are averaging a combined 14 points and shooting better than 50% on 3s. It’s unlikely they’ll keep that up, but the extra depth will help the Liberty to manage the extended 44-game regular season.
No New York player is averaging more than 30.2 minutes, a mark Laney-Hamilton, Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart all exceeded last year.
Searching for a weakness
Reinforcing their dominance, the Liberty lead the WNBA in both offensive and defensive rating. Of the eight teams to pull off that double in league history, seven won the championship — all but the 2016 Lynx.
New York ranks in the WNBA’s top three in six of the eight “four factors” across offense and defense, including No. 1 in effective field goal percentage (eFG%, which counts 3-pointers as 1.5 field goals to reflect their added value) and opponent eFG%.
The glass is the notable exception to the Liberty’s balanced success. New York ranks last in offensive rebounding percentage and 12th of 13 teams on the defensive glass. The latter is a change from last season, when the Liberty had the WNBA’s best defensive rebounding percentage, and it represents perhaps the single biggest concern for Sandy Brondello and the New York coaching staff.
The Liberty are much stronger on the defensive glass with leading rebounder Jonquel Jones on the court, rating better than league average when she plays but still down from 2024 with Jones on the floor. That points to a decline in rebounding from Stewart, who has gone from securing 15% of all available rebounds in 2024 — about her career average — to a career-low 10% thus far in 2025.
Stewart rediscovering her rebounding prowess would go a long way toward solidifying New York’s one shortcoming.
Trending toward a Finals rematch?
As well as they’ve played, the Liberty are still a half-game back in the standings of 10-1 Minnesota, the team that took New York the distance in last year’s Finals. The two teams, both of whom started 9-0, are two losses ahead of the rest of the league.
In that context, I was surprised to see that a Lynx-Liberty Finals rematch is considered less likely than not at ESPN BET, which gives it plus-205 odds. The odds imply a better chance of New York facing the field than Minnesota.
It’s easy to overstate the inevitability of favorites meeting in the Finals, but those odds are longer than what BPI simulations show. The BPI has the Liberty making the Finals 73% of the time and the Lynx 60%, meaning they square off again in 45% of matchups.
The tougher question, one we tackled in our recent team grades, is who might knock Minnesota and New York out of the Finals. The BPI favors the 8-3 Atlanta Dream, who aren’t far behind the top two teams in the standings or in terms of point differential (plus-9.0 points per game). Remarkably, the Dream still have the seventh-best title odds at ESPN BET.
I picked the Fever, who showed their potential on Saturday against the Liberty. New York’s most competitive win also came against Indiana, bookending Clark’s absence. Indiana boasts a plus-10.2 differential in the five games Clark has played, albeit fattened by a 35-point win over the Sky in the season opener.
The market still shows faith in the Las Vegas Aces, who are 5-5 with a minus-2.3 differential after losing Sunday with A’ja Wilson sidelined for a second consecutive game by a concussion. The Aces have the pedigree of championships in 2022 and 2023 and Wilson still playing at an elite level when healthy, but they have just two wins all season by more than five points and were no match for New York in the season opener.
BPI simulations still have Las Vegas fourth in championship odds, same as ESPN BET, but we’re going to need to see the Aces back it up on the court sooner rather than later.
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