When it comes to running back fantasy production, touchdowns are paramount.
Last season, 24% of the position’s fantasy scoring came from touchdowns. The top eight running backs in PPR fantasy points also comprised the position’s top eight in touchdowns. And all but one of the position’s single-game 30-point performances were multi-touchdown efforts.
That said, year-over-year touchdown production at the position can be notoriously difficult to predict. Twelve running backs scored double-digit touchdowns in 2023, but only seven of them did so again in 2024, with the dozen averaging 3.2 fewer touchdowns and 29.9 fewer PPR fantasy fantasy points.
It’s a category of prognostication, of analyzing player skills and physical traits and, yes, even some guesswork. That’s where we’re here to help, breaking down the position’s most likely sources of touchdown production. The following lists take into account running backs’ size, strength, speed, situational statistics and past history.
Let’s start with the position’s very best in this department.
Sign up for ESPN Fantasy Football. Play the No. 1 Fantasy game for free!
Our eight best RB touchdown bets
1. Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: He’s both speed demon and goal-line dynamo, leading the league in explosive play rate (15.7% of his carries went for 10-plus yards), while also placing third in touchdown conversion rate inside the 3-yard line (72.2%, or 13 of 16). No running back has a greater combination of touchdown-generating skills. — Cockcroft
At 5-foot-9, 202 pounds, Gibbs doesn’t have the physical profile of a classic goal-line back, but he can operate in tight quarters, using his lateral quickness to dart through creases of daylight, while dropping his pad level at the doorstep of the end zone. Plus, with his short-area burst, Gibbs can bounce the ball outside to slice through pursuit angles on the goal line or out in the open field. He is electric with the ball in his hands. — Bowen
2. Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams: Williams lacks the sudden movement traits of an elite zone scheme runner, but with his vision and contact balance, he can find the end zone at a high rate. Williams has enough lower body wiggle to sift through traffic, and his ability to bounce off defenders leads to touchdown production. Williams is a consistent and reliable fantasy starter. — Bowen
Only three running backs had more than Williams’ 21 touchdowns in goal-to-go situations the past three seasons, and he converted 40% of those tries into scores, a testament to his dominant nature when in scoring position. — Cockcroft
3. Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens: If not for his age and 2,529 career touches, he’d rank higher, but Henry is as good a bet to lead the league in touchdowns as anyone. Within 3 yards of the goal line, he led in touchdowns (22) and first downs over expectation (5.6) from 2022 to ’24, and his seven scores from outside the red zone were second to only Saquon Barkley‘s nine. — Cockcroft
Still one the league’s best at age 31, Henry’s 6-foot-2, 247-pound frame and lower-body power are both game changers on the goal line. Henry runs behind his pads, which allows him to fall forward on contact, while also forcing defenders to make some business decisions at the point of attack. A long strider in the open field with a lethal stiff arm to drop defensive backs into the turf, Henry can hit home runs, too. Time to strike up the band when Henry gets rolling. — Bowen
4. Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers: I felt that Jacobs was one of the top runners in the low red zone last year based on the tape. He can play with both power and foot quickness inside of a phone booth, and he has thunder in his pads. An easy fit for the Packers’ goal-line run schemes, Jacobs’ physical play style creates scoring opportunities in your lineup. — Bowen
Only two players with at least five such attempts had greater than Jacobs’ 71% touchdown conversion rate within the 3-yard line last season. — Cockcroft
5. James Cook, Buffalo Bills: He’s as likely to break off a long gain for a score as anyone, his seven touchdowns from outside the red zone the past three seasons matching Henry’s second-place number (Barkley led), but Cook was also an excellent 5-of-8 converting his goal-line carries last season, swiftly adapting to the role he inherited to begin 2024. — Cockcroft
Cook’s 16 rushing scores last season tied for the league lead with Henry. He’s a decisive runner with little wasted movement on the goal line. Pick a north/south running lane to accelerate through or attack the perimeter. It’s quick, now. And a poor defensive angle is going to lead to six points. Plus, Cook can score from anywhere on the field, ripping off explosive plays as a runner. — Bowen
6. David Montgomery, Lions: A downhill runner with excellent contact balance and lower body control, Montgomery is a hammer on the goal line. Whether Montgomery is running from shotgun sets or I-back alignments, he keeps his shoulders square and uses a quick jump cut to get out of trouble. Part of the best backfield combo in the league with Gibbs, Montgomery will get his touches in scoring position, making him a solid RB2/Flex in the lineup. — Bowen
It’s remarkable that the Lions have two of the game’s best running backs at finding the end zone, but here we are. Montgomery was 18 of 29 (62%) converting for scores inside the 3 from 2022 to ’24. — Cockcroft
7. Joe Mixon, Houston Texans: I loved this signing for the Texans a year ago, as Mixon has been one of the league’s most quietly reliant in scoring position, his 16 scores inside the 3 from 2022 to ’24 tied for sixth most in the league. — Cockcroft
A savvy runner in scoring position, Mixon blends patience, vision and power on goal-line plays. Mixon has the leg strength to push the pile on interior schemes, and he will attack the perimeter on outside zone concepts. Plus, Mixon can redirect quickly to evade defenders and create a new path to the end zone. — Bowen
8. Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: Sudden and elusive, with a creative element to his game, Robinson is a dynamic runner in scoring position. Robinson can hit the accelerator on perimeter schemes, play with force on a downhill track and his ability to change directions is high-level. Robinson has all the traits of a difference-maker with big play potential. — Bowen
Robinson is as likely to break off a long run for a score as anyone, as Next Gen Stats has clocked his average speed at 13.4 mph across his two NFL seasons, second-fastest among running backs with at least 100 carries. — Cockcroft
Four RB touchdown sleepers, and the teammates they impact
1. Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars: Bigsby has the profile to operate on the goal line in Jacksonville, which could take away scoring opportunities from Travis Etienne Jr. and rookie Bhayshul Tuten. Bigsby scored seven touchdowns in 2024, using his 5-foot-11, 215-pound frame to run through contact, and he has more big-play juice than you think. There’s open-field ability here, too. — Bowen
Bigsby is 5-for-9 converting his chances inside the 3-yard line, and he has forced a missed tackle on three of those plays. He should begin 2025 as the Jaguars’ first choice when in scoring position. — Cockcroft
2. Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots: Early fantasy drafters seem to love rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson, but Stevenson’s track record as one of the league’s more reliable goal-line backs could make him one of 2025’s top touchdown vultures. Stevenson is 9-of-17 converting inside the three from 2022-24. — Cockcroft
There has been a lot of offseason hype for the Patriots’ rookie RB, given his versatility and pass-catching skill set. But don’t forget about Stevenson here. At 6-foot, 207 pounds, he is built for the goal line: power and pad level to get six. — Bowen
3. J.K. Dobbins, Denver Broncos: Dobbins looked more explosive on tape in 2024, which translated to some big-play touchdown runs. On the goal line, he can follow the road map to the end zone on gap schemes. Physical with the ball. RJ Harvey figures to be the lead runner in Sean Payton’s backfield, but Dobbins has the traits to steal touches on the goal line. — Bowen
Dobbins’ 57% missed tackles forced rate (four on seven plays) inside the 3-yard line from 2022-24 led the league, and he scored seven times on 18 goal-to-go plays. He could be a potential headache for Harvey’s managers. — Cockcroft
4. Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I’m as pro-Bucky Irving as anyone entering 2025, but White scored nine times on 12 tries inside the 3 the past three seasons, a success rate the team might be unable to overlook. — Cockcroft
Irving should enter camp as the No.1 in Tampa, but White will still get his touches. He has the body control to slither through cracks of daylight when the field shrinks near the goal line. — Bowen
Other RBs worthy of mention
Gus Edwards was 19 of 39 (second-best 49%) converting his goal-to-go carries into touchdowns from 2022-24, painting the picture of a short-yardage back for any team that considers signing him in the coming weeks. … Ezekiel Elliott, currently a member of the Los Angeles Chargers‘ practice squad, is 16 of 38 (second-best 42%) scoring in goal-to-go situations over the past three seasons.
#Fantasy #football #rankings #backs #reliable #scorers
