The 2024 NFL season was quite eventful, full of surprises, both positive and negative. Fantasy football managers must now decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true for the 2025 season, well, don’t be surprised!
NOTE: All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring.
Don’t be surprised if any of these things happen in 2025 …
Caleb Williams becomes the first Bears QB to pass for 4,000 yards
It’s hard to believe that Erik Kramer boasts the franchise mark with 3,838 passing yards in 1995. The talented Williams will break it this season. The dysfunctional Bears gave their young QB playmakers last season, but a shaky offensive line and mind-boggling playcalling/coaching mostly torpedoed his rookie campaign. Williams remains a future star and is a borderline QB1 for fantasy.
Drake Maye outscores Caleb Williams
Then again, if we like Williams, then we really like Maye. It’s all about the running ability here. Maye did not get much help during his rookie campaign, but he still averaged better than 32 rushing yards per his 13 games. That number should rise, and the addition of WR Stefon Diggs saves the passing game. A new coaching staff and upgraded offensive line figure to make things easier in Year 2.
Kyler Murray returns to top-5 QB status
Murray rushed for 819 yards and 11 TDs in 2020 (his second NFL season), but he hasn’t approached those numbers since. His 4.6 rushing attempts per game last season were a career low. Murray claims his 2023 season-ending knee injury hampered him in 2024, and that’s believable. Murray will run more this season. The passing numbers are already there, so let’s be optimistic that he really runs like he used to.
Justin Fields leads the Jets in rushing
This may seem a bit wild, but only one current Jet has eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards … and it’s Fields! He rushed for 1,143 yards in 2022. RB Breece Hall hasn’t done it in his three NFL seasons, and he may find it more difficult with a running QB (though he will catch many passes). Fields was the No. 6 fantasy QB scorer in his magical season, though his Bears finished 3-14. These Jets are better, and Fields is a good fit — if they let him run (which they should).
C.J. Stroud passes for 4,500 yards
Awesome as a rookie but running for his proverbial life in his second season, Stroud is far better than he showed in 2024, and WR Nico Collins is a star. Stroud was sacked 52 times, second only to Caleb Williams. A sturdier offensive line should permit Stroud to look much more like he did in his first season, making him worth securing as a starter in deeper fantasy formats.
Sam Darnold falls to QB3 fantasy status in Seattle
Give Darnold credit for resurrecting his career, but he left the perfect situation in Minnesota, with a coach and offense playing to his strengths, and elite WR options such as Justin Jefferson. Don’t draft last season’s stats. This is not Baker Mayfield, Part II. The journeyman Darnold won’t revisit his 2024 statistics with a Seahawks team that features the running game.
Daniel Jones starts more Colts games than Anthony Richardson Sr.
Honestly, how much more convincing do you need that Richardson is not the answer in Indianapolis? He missed half the games due to injury during his first two seasons, and he wasn’t exactly a polished passer when he played. There is little question the tantalizing Richardson can run, but he can’t stay on the field. Jones isn’t exactly awesome or durable, either, so this is a mess you must avoid.
Saquon Barkley falls outside the top 5 RB scorers
What an amazing first season in Philadelphia for Barkley, with 2,005 rushing yards, 22.2 fantasy points per game and a Super Bowl championship. Be careful here, though. Of the eight prior running backs to rush for 2,000 yards, Chris Johnson is the only one to finish among the top 5 PPR RBs the next season. None reached 1,500 rushing yards. Several missed multiple games. Barkley entered 2024 with a track record for injuries, then he carried the heaviest volume of his career (378 touches) into February. The Eagles will be more cautious in Year 2.
Derrick Henry rushes for 2,000 yards — again
Henry was overshadowed by Barkley, but he was also a stellar fit with his new team, rushing for 1,921 yards. There are differences here. Henry, though older than Barkley, is known for consistency and durability, save for a half-season in 2021. Henry plays little role in the passing game. His volume is more repeatable. Don’t necessarily select Henry over Barkley, but it isn’t outrageous to consider it.
Christian McCaffrey lets you down — again
A healthy McCaffrey is a wonderful player, as most recently seen in 2023, but the 49ers — and fantasy managers — simply cannot count on his attendance. The 49ers must monitor his workload and hope for the best. This is a bad combination for someone likely to be an early-round draft pick. Perhaps McCaffrey, 29, returns to a high level of performance and carries the 49ers and your fantasy team, but he’s been a top-10 RB in only two of the past five seasons.
Two Seahawks RBs finish among the top 20 scorers
Nothing against Kenneth Walker III, a proven standout who added more receiving work during an injury-plagued 2024 season, but Zach Charbonnet can do those things, too. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak may copy the Lions’ strategy of using two running backs in tandem, perhaps decreasing Walker’s volume to keep him healthy. Each RB can and should thrive, but Charbonnet would be the better draft-day value.
Chase Brown delivers RB1 numbers
Brown proved he could handle a major workload, averaging better than 23 touches per game over the final eight games, when he was among the top five fantasy running backs. And there is little reason to expect the Bengals to force him back into a timeshare. Only four running backs caught more passes, and Brown did most of that damage from November on. He will be a draft-day bargain.
Tyreek Hill returns to top-3 WR production
One disappointing, injury-plagued season and now Hill falls out of everyone’s top 10. It just seems too convenient an excuse. Hill caught 119 passes in each of his first two Dolphins seasons, reaching 170 targets with QB Tua Tagovailoa. He is recovered from offseason wrist surgery, he and his offensive-minded head coach are motivated to prove skeptics wrong, and we’ve already seen how Hill can carry fantasy managers.
Deebo Samuel Sr. is a bust in Washington
Samuel enters his seventh NFL season with a new franchise and is probably a bit overrated by fantasy managers. Samuel has finished among the top 25 fantasy WRs in two of his six seasons, buoyed by rushing production he may find challenging to replicate with the Commanders. This team has a running QB, a solid RB timeshare, and an elite WR already in place.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is a safe WR2 option
Harrison’s rookie season was statistically disappointing, as he didn’t approach 1,000 receiving yards, but his usage should only rise in Year 2. The Cardinals need Harrison to average far better than 2.6 yards after the catch, among the lowest figures in the league, and there is ample reason to expect improvement. Harrison isn’t Malik Nabers or Brian Thomas Jr. (better rookie producers from the 2024 draft), but give him time.
Rome Odunze becomes an WR2 option, too
Chicago’s offense is going to improve, and Odunze, a top-10 pick in the 2024 draft (five spots after Harrison), has much to gain statistically. As noted with Caleb Williams, everything has changed with the Bears, and with WR Keenan Allen (and his 121 targets) gone, Odunze will see more chances downfield and in the red zone. Expect 75 catches and 1,000 receiving yards, at least.
Lions TE Sam LaPorta outscores WR Jameson Williams
LaPorta starred in his rookie season, but he spent the first half of Year 2 fighting for targets, mostly with the emerging deep threat Williams, while likely dealing with ankle and hamstring injuries. LaPorta had a big second half, earning six or more targets in each game after Week 10. These are two vastly different playmakers. Williams averaged 17.3 yards per catch, nearly doubling LaPorta’s average, but the tight end is more reliable and more of a red zone target.
Trey McBride scores 10 touchdowns
McBride would have finished his third NFL season as fantasy’s top tight end if he had a bit more luck near the goal line. He sailed past 100 receptions and 1,000 receiving yards, but he didn’t score his first TD until Week 17. Then he scored again in the season finale. McBride saw ample red zone targets, and his best fantasy season awaits.
T.J. Hockenson returns to top-5 TE status
Hockenson was always likely to disappoint eager fantasy managers in 2024 as he fought back from a serious knee injury late the prior season. Frankly, we should ignore Hockenson’s 2024 numbers and remember his impact in 2022 and 2023. Don’t worry about new QB J.J. McCarthy. A healthy Hockenson will easily eclipse 100 targets.
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