NTPC Shares Rise 2% After Reporting Q4 Earnings; Should You Buy, Sell, Or Hold?

Last Updated:May 26, 2025, 09:38 IST

NTPC Share Price: NTPC Ltd.’s shares will be in focus on Monday after the public sector player reported its in-line earnings For Q4FY25

NTPC Share Price: Shares of state-run power giant NTPC Ltd. rose 2% in early trade on Monday, May 26, following the release of its January–March quarter (Q4FY25) earnings, which came broadly in line with market expectations.

For Q4FY25, NTPC posted a 4% year-on-year (YoY) increase in consolidated net profit at Rs 5,778 crore, compared to Rs 5,556.4 crore in the same quarter last year. Revenue from operations rose 3.2% YoY to Rs 43,903.7 crore. However, EBITDA slipped slightly to Rs 11,255 crore, down 1% from Rs 11,340.6 crore a year earlier. The operating margin narrowed to 25.6%, compared to 26.7% in the corresponding period last year.

Looking ahead, NTPC’s management expects average standalone capex to rise to around Rs 32,000 crore annually over the next three years. In FY25, standalone capex stood at Rs 22,965 crore, up from Rs 19,444 crore the previous year. Group-level capex climbed to Rs 44,636 crore, compared to Rs 35,385 crore in FY24. NTPC Green Energy, a key subsidiary, reported a substantial rise in consolidated capex to Rs 12,914 crore, versus Rs 8,996 crore in FY24.

Brokerages Take: Buy, Hold or Sell?

Jefferies has reaffirmed its ‘buy’ rating on NTPC, with a price target of Rs 490 per share. The brokerage highlighted a strong performance in NTPC’s renewable energy segment, which posted a 90% margin, and noted better-than-expected EBITDA. It also pointed out a reduction in fixed cost under-recovery to Rs 460 crore, down from Rs 780 crore in FY24. Jefferies sees capacity ramp-up and consistent double-digit EPS CAGR as major catalysts for a potential re-rating.

Nuvama Institutional Equities also retained its ‘buy’ recommendation, calling NTPC its top pick in the power utilities space, thanks to attractive valuations. The firm estimates a 7% EPS CAGR over FY25–27E, supported by 22GW of upcoming thermal, hydro, and renewable capacity, along with potential gains from CERC incentives. However, it trimmed its target price slightly to Rs 404, from Rs 412 earlier.

On the other hand, Motilal Oswal maintained a neutral stance, citing sluggish installed capacity growth over FY25–27, both at the standalone and consolidated levels (excluding NTPC Green Energy). The brokerage flagged concerns around execution challenges at NGEL, which commissioned just 1.9GW in FY25, falling short of the 3GW guidance. Additionally, it noted NTPC’s expected FY27 dividend yield of 2.7% remains below peers like Power Grid, which is projected at 3.4%.

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