Caitlin Clark was the favorite to win the WNBA MVP award entering the 2025 season but when she was ruled out for at least two weeks with a quad injury, Napheesa Collier took the top spot on the oddsboard. Collier is currently the overwhelming favorite to win MVP (-300), but Clark is set to return on Saturday against the New York Liberty.
Could she still get back in the MVP race? If so, is there any value in betting on her at her current odds? Let’s explore.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
Typically, the MVP award is given to a player that maximizes the intersection between individual production and team success. If we use fantasy scoring average as the metric for the former and team win percentage for the latter, the last 10 players to win MVP have averaged at least 40.2 FP/G and played on teams that won 74.8% of their games.
We are roughly 20% of the way through the season, with each team having played about nine or 10 of their 44 games. There is still plenty of time for things to change, but at present there are four players with a reasonable chance to fit the marks of an MVP.
Clark (+320) is third in the league with 41.5 FP/G, and her Fever have won 44.4% of their games.
A’ja Wilson (+2000) is second in the league with 44.3 FP/G, and her Aces have won 50% of their games.
Breanna Stewart (+3300) is twelfth in the league with 33.7 FP/G, just behind teammate Sabrina Ionescu (33.8 FP/G, +10,000 to win MVP), but her Liberty are the last undefeated team with a 100% win rate.
At present, Collier is the only player that would surpass the average criteria of an MVP in both metrics, which is why she is the prohibitive favorite. She is the most productive player in the league and plays for a team that just recently lost their first game.
Wilson and Stewart are both multiple-time MVP winners. Wilson’s production is much higher than the typical MVP winner, but her team isn’t winning at the same pace as previous years, while Stewart’s team is defeating every opponent without her having to produce MVP-level individual numbers. Both are getting longshot odds, and could be worth a flyer, but their outlooks would have to change in order for them to have a legitimate chance at MVP this season.
And then there’s Clark. Prior to her injury, she was delivering the production of an MVP candidate. Her team was 2-2, but one of their losses was to the undefeated Liberty and the other was to an Atlanta Dream team that they defeated in the rematch. The Fever brought in two high-level free agents this offseason in Natasha Howard and DeWanna Bonner to join Clark, Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell. Now that Clark is back, it is very plausible that the Fever could increase their win percentage and bolster her MVP case.
Collier should be the runaway favorite to win MVP but there’s still 80% of the season left to go. Clark is likely to only improve on her production (she averaged 43.7 FP/G over the last 28 games of her rookie season) and the Fever have the best chance among the teams with MVP candidates to improve dramatically in the short term.
Clark is also the most popular player in the WNBA by a large margin, so any uptick in her production and improvement for Fever on the court will result in immediate changes to her odds in the MVP market.
It’s unlikely that you’ll see Clark at +320 to win MVP again if the Fever go on a winning streak.
If you believe in Clark and the Indiana Fever, there’s no better time to bet on the superstar guard to win MVP than right now.
She is clearly in a great position to improve her odds and if you don’t feel comfortable going with a longshot like Wilson or Stewart, Clark offers the best remaining betting value on the board.
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