Last Updated:July 08, 2025, 19:13 IST
A study in Nature Medicine warned that over 15 million children born between 2008-2017 may develop gastric cancer due to Helicobacter pylori, with India and China hardest hit
Gastric cancer already ranks as the fifth leading cause of cancer-related deaths globally.
A major new study has issued a sobering warning for global public health; over 15.6 million people worldwide born between 2008 and 2017 may be diagnosed with gastric cancer during their lifetimes, and India could contribute the second-highest number of cases, following China.
The alarming findings, published in the journal Nature Medicine and conducted by scientists from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), the World Health Organisation’s cancer research arm, suggest that two-thirds of all projected cases will be concentrated in Asia, followed by the Americas and Africa.
Citing data from GLOBOCAN 2022 and mortality rates from UN demographic projections, researchers examined cancer incidence across 185 countries. Their calculations revealed a significant cancer burden on future generations, one that’s largely preventable.
“Globally, 15.6 million lifetime gastric cancer cases are expected within these birth cohorts, 76 per cent of which are attributable to Helicobacter pylori (bacteria),” the authors noted, according to PTI.
India Alone Could See Over 1.65 Crore Cases
The report estimates that 10.6 million of the projected cases could arise in Asia, with India and China combined accounting for 6.5 million of them. Cases from India could be 1,657,670 with no changes in the current measures for controlling gastric cancer, it projected.
“Helicobacter pylori infection is the biggest risk factor,” the study noted. The bacteria, which typically settles in the stomach, can persist undetected for years, triggering chronic inflammation, ulcers, and eventually, gastric cancer.
This form of cancer already ranks as the fifth leading cause of cancer-related deaths globally.
What makes the findings more worrying is the age group affected. Those born between 2008 and 2017 are still in their teens or pre-teens, and the prospect of a life-threatening disease already looming over them is deeply concerning for families and policymakers alike.
Prevention Could Avert 75% Of Future Cases
Despite the grim projections, scientists say that timely intervention could change the future. The study finds that screening for and treating Helicobacter pylori infections could prevent up to 75% of future gastric cancer cases. “These cases are eminently preventable, but only if nations invest in population-level screening and treatment,” the authors emphasised.
They also sounded the alarm on the growing incidence among the young and the aging population, a dual demographic shift that could reverse decades of progress in reducing gastric cancer deaths.
Sub-Saharan Africa Could See 6-Fold Rise
While regions like Sub-Saharan Africa currently report fewer gastric cancer cases, the study warns of a potential six-fold surge in the coming decades if preventive steps are not taken now. “Gastric cancer is preventable, but only if there is political will and public investment in early intervention,” the authors concluded, calling for urgent action globally.
This new study builds upon prior warnings from global health authorities. Scientists have already projected that one in every five people will suffer from some form of cancer in their lifetime. This latest research underscores how gastric cancer in particular could become a ticking time bomb, especially in regions like India, where healthcare infrastructure and early screening still face major challenges.
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